Ben Thompson, Stratechery, tries to explain why so many people keep getting Apple so wrong:
Apple, of course, is not doomed. In fact, the company is the very opposite of doomed, having just posted the best quarter of any company, ever...
I’ve previously, in one of the first ever posts on Stratechery, tried to figure out why it is that people keep getting Apple so wrong; I chalked it up to an over-reliance on modeling and magical manager syndrome. And, while I think that is still true, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that much of the reporting and analysis about Apple specifically and tech broadly is governed by bad assumption on top of bad assumption on top of bad assumption:
Ben goes on to list three bad assumptions. It's definitely worth a read.